The arrival of a new cold front number 4, in interaction with tropical storm Lidia, a dry line, low-pressure channels, the entry of moisture from the Pacific Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea, and instability at high levels of the atmosphere, will cause heavy rains and showers accompanied by electrical discharges, According to the forecast of the National Meteorological Service (SMN) of the National Water Commission (CONAGUA), temperatures will be between 0 and 5 degrees Celsius in several areas of the Mexican territory.
On Tuesday, October 3rd, cold front number 4 will enter the north of the country, a dry line, and the entrance of tropical maritime air from the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and the Pacific Ocean in combination with troughs, will produce very heavy rains (50 to 75 mm) in Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan, Guerrero, Oaxaca, Chiapas, and Veracruz, as well as heavy rains (25 to 50 mm) in Coahuila, Durango, Sinaloa, Guanajuato, Mexico State, Mexico City, Morelos, and Puebla.
Likewise, light to moderate rains (5 to 25 mm) are expected in the states of Chihuahua, Nuevo Leon, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi, Zacatecas, Aguascalientes, Queretaro, Hidalgo, Tlaxcala, Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatan and Quintana Roo. Precipitation will be accompanied by abundant electric activity, strong gusts of wind, and hail is not ruled out.
Barometric pressure differences at local and regional levels, as well as downdrafts generated by the formation of storms, will give rise to maximum winds of between 60 and 80 km/h with probable whirlwinds and tornadoes in Chihuahua, Coahuila, and Nuevo Leon (north). Likewise, winds of between 40 and 60 km/h with possible Tolvaneras are expected in Sonora, Sinaloa, Tamaulipas, Zacatecas, San Luis Potosí, and Aguascalientes.
Tropical Storm Lidia, originating southwest of the coasts of Colima and Jalisco, will generate heavy rains with very heavy spikes in western Mexico.
Low-pressure channels along the Sierra Madre Occidental and southeastern Mexico, combined with moisture from the Pacific Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea and instability at high atmospheric levels, will cause showers and heavy to very heavy showers with thundershowers in central, eastern, southern and southeastern Mexico, including the Valley of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula.
On Wednesday, October 4th, cold front number 4 will remain stationed over the northern border of the country, in interaction with a low-pressure channel over the northern table and the subtropical jet stream, will maintain very heavy showers in Chihuahua, Coahuila, and Durango, heavy rains in Tamaulipas and showers in Nuevo Leon.
Wind gusts of 60 to 80 km/h and possible whirlwinds or tornadoes are forecast in the north of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas, as well as gusts of 40 to 60 km/h and possible “Tolvaneras” in Chihuahua, Zacatecas, and San Luis Potosi.
The most important minimum temperatures at dawn on Wednesday will drop to values between 0 and 5 °C in the mountain ranges of Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, Durango, Zacatecas, Jalisco, Guanajuato, Michoacán, State of Mexico, Hidalgo, Tlaxcala, Puebla, Veracruz and Oaxaca.
Likewise, a low-pressure channel in the southeast of the country, an instability zone with a probability of cyclonic development south of the coasts of Oaxaca and Chiapas, together with the entrance of humidity from the Pacific Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea and instability at high atmospheric levels, will cause showers and heavy to very heavy rains over entities in the west, center, east, south and southeast of the country, including the Valley of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula.
Meanwhile, the low-pressure area with a high probability for cyclonic development or possible tropical cyclone moves off the coasts of Colima and Jalisco, without affecting national coasts.
On Thursday, cold front 4 will continue to move eastward, being reinforced by a cold air mass. This, in interaction with a low-pressure channel over the northeast of the country and the flow of the subtropical jet stream, will cause heavy rains in Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas, very heavy rains in Chihuahua and heavy rains in San Luis Potosi.
Likewise, it will maintain wind gusts of 60 to 80 km/h and possible whirlwinds or tornadoes in the north of Coahuila and Nuevo Leon, as well as 40 to 60 km/h and possibly Tolvaneras in Chihuahua, Zacatecas, and San Luis Potosi.
Starting Thursday night, the cold air mass associated with the front will originate a very cold environment at dawn in high areas of Chihuahua, as well as a decrease in daytime temperatures.
In turn, a low-pressure channel in the southeast of Mexico, interacts with an instability zone with the probability of cyclonic development south of the coasts of Oaxaca and Chiapas, in addition to the entry of moisture from the Pacific Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean Sea will cause heavy to very heavy showers and rains in the west, center, east, south, and southeast of the country, including the Valley of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula.
Finally, the low-pressure area with a high probability for cyclonic development or possible tropical cyclone will move south of the coasts of Baja California Sur, without affecting Mexican coasts.
On Friday, frontal system 4 will extend over northern Mexico and will combine with instability at high atmospheric levels and with the subtropical jet stream, generating very heavy to occasionally heavy rains in the north and northeast of Mexico; the cold air mass that will give it impulse will cause a drop in temperatures, as well as strong gusts of wind over the northern states of the Mesa del Norte.
On the other hand, a low-pressure channel in the southeast of the country, interacting with a low-pressure area with the probability of cyclonic development south of the coasts of Oaxaca and Chiapas, together with the entrance of humidity from the Pacific Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea, will cause showers and heavy to very heavy rains in the center, east, south and southeast of the country, including the Valley of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula.
Likewise, instability in high levels of the atmosphere and the entrance of humidity from the Pacific Ocean will originate the probability of strong to very strong rains in the northwest and west of Mexico, with heavy rains forecast in areas of Durango, Sinaloa, Nayarit, and Jalisco.
Finally, the low-pressure area with a high probability for cyclonic development or possible tropical cyclones will move south of the coasts of Baja California Sur, without affecting national coasts.
Minimum and maximum temperatures for the Mexican Republic
Minimum temperatures of 0 to 5 °C: mountain ranges of Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, Durango, Zacatecas, Jalisco, Michoacán, Guanajuato, Hidalgo, and Oaxaca; and high areas of the State of Mexico, Tlaxcala, Puebla and Veracruz.
Maximum temperatures of 35 to 40 °C: Sonora, Sinaloa, Oaxaca, Chiapas, Coahuila, Nuevo León, San Luis Potosí, Hidalgo (northeast), Puebla (north), Tamaulipas, Veracruz, Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo.
Maximum temperatures of 30 to 35 °C: Baja California, Baja California Sur, Chihuahua, Durango, Zacatecas, Aguascalientes, Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, Guerrero, Guanajuato, Querétaro and Morelos.
Rainfall forecast for the Mexican territory
Heavy rains with occasional very heavy rains (50 to 75 mm): Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, Guerrero, Oaxaca, Chiapas, and Veracruz.
Intervals of showers with heavy showers (25 to 50 mm): Sinaloa, Coahuila, Durango, Guanajuato, Morelos, Puebla, State of Mexico and Mexico City.
Interval showers (5 to 25 mm): Chihuahua, Nuevo Leon, San Luis Potosi, Zacatecas, Aguascalientes, Queretaro, Hidalgo, Tlaxcala, Tamaulipas, Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatan and Quintana Roo.
Isolated rains (0.1 to 5 mm): Baja California Sur.
Wind forecast for the Mexican territory
Wind with gusts of 60 to 80 km/h and possible formation of whirlwinds or tornadoes: northern Chihuahua, Coahuila, and Nuevo Leon.
Wind with gusts of 40 to 60 km/h: Isthmus of Tehuantepec and Mexico City, and with possible Tolvaneras: Baja California, Sonora, Sinaloa, Tamaulipas, Zacatecas, San Luis Potosí, Aguascalientes and the State of Mexico.
What is a cold front?
A cold front is produced by the collision of two air masses: a cold one and a warm one; this causes the formation of severe storms and a northerly event. They are driven by a mass of cold air at an approximate speed between 40 and 60 kilometers/hour, so they have a duration of 3 to 7 days in our country and leave a cooling of the air over the region through which it passes.
According to Mexico’s climatology, the season of frontal systems begins during the month of September and concludes in May when cyclones and hurricanes are activated; it is also important to remember that when fronts interact with tropical systems, they become more unstable, durable, and dangerous.
The effects of a cold front, in addition to low temperatures, are rain, snowfall, waves, and wind; the latter, when it runs from north to south in the Gulf of Mexico and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, is commonly known as North.
What to do before the arrival of a cold front?
With the arrival of a cold front, it is important to take some precautions to stay safe and comfortable. Here are some steps you can take:
Dress appropriately: Be sure to wear warm, layered clothing to keep warm. A coat, scarf, gloves, and hat are essential to protect you from the cold.
Keep your home warm: If you are at home, make sure your heating system is working properly. If necessary, use electric or gas heaters to keep the room warm. Also, be sure to seal any air leaks in doors and windows.
Protect yourself from the wind: Wind can make the wind chill much colder. Whenever you go out, wear clothes that protect you from the wind and look for sheltered places.
Eat well: Warm foods can help you maintain your body temperature. Drinking hot beverages such as tea, coffee or hot chocolate can be comforting.
Avoid outdoor activities: If conditions are very cold, it is best to avoid outdoor activities that expose you to too much cold, especially if you are not properly dressed.
Drive with caution: Roads can become dangerous due to ice or snow. If you need to drive, be sure to do so with caution by slowing down and keeping a greater safe distance.
Protect your pets: If you have pets, make sure they are also protected from the cold. Keep animals indoors or provide them with shelter and blankets if they are outside.
Prepare supplies: Make sure you have enough supplies in case cold weather causes power or water outages. Keep flashlights, batteries, and non-perishable food on hand.
Stay informed: Follow weather forecasts to be aware of any changes in the weather. This will allow you to make informed decisions about your activities and preparations.
Take care of vulnerable people: Pay attention to young children, the elderly, and people with health problems, as they are more susceptible to low temperatures. Make sure they are warm and well-protected.
Remember that the key is to stay informed and take appropriate precautions to maintain your safety and well-being during the arrival of a cold front.
Source: OEM
