While Tropical Storm Debby continues to move through the U.S. Southeast, National Hurricane Center forecasters are monitoring a potential disturbance in the central or western Atlantic Ocean for possible development.
An area of low pressure could form in the Atlantic early next week and could develop as it approaches the Lesser Antilles, a long arc of small islands in the Caribbean Sea extending north-south from the Virgin Islands to Grenada, during the early to middle part of next week.
The area of low pressure is expected to then move west-northwest toward the Greater Antilles, which include Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.
As of 2 p.m. Thursday, it was given a 40% chance of formation in the next seven days, according to the hurricane center, up from 30% earlier that morning.
Though July was quiet, experts at Colorado State this week said the remainder of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season should be “extremely active,” with the likelihood of 10 more hurricanes.
Colorado State’s department of atmospheric science has released its final 2024 hurricane season forecast for the year, calling for a “well-above-average” August through November.
One bright note is that it actually reduced its number of named storms from its July forecast, from 25 down to 23. The 1991 to 2020 average is 14.4.
The Colorado State team still expects 12 hurricanes (the 1991-2020 average was 7.2), and is forecasting that six of those will reach major hurricane strength (Category 3, 4 or 5). The 1991-2020 average is 3.2.
The next storm to form would be Gordon.
Source.- NOAA
