The real estate market in Tulum began to show an imbalance between supply and demand after the number of housing units under construction increased from 1,466 in 2017 to 13,266 in 2023, a rise of 1,028%, while tourism stopped growing and failed to recover to pre-pandemic levels.
According to an analysis by InfoHabitat, prepared using data from Softec and the Ministry of Tourism, Tulum’s real estate boom was largely driven by expectations of profitability linked to vacation rentals and property appreciation, rather than by growth in actual housing demand.
“Housing stopped being measured by its use and began to be measured by its expected return as an investment asset,” the analysis by Eduardo Moya, Director of InfoHabitat, states.
The document identifies several factors that fueled the market’s expansion, including Tulum’s international positioning as a tourist destination, expectations surrounding the Tulum International Airport and the Maya Train, as well as the promotion of annual returns of around 10% in some short-term rental developments.
The report adds that the rapid recovery observed after the pandemic reinforced the perception that demand would continue to grow steadily, encouraging the launch of new residential projects aimed primarily at investors.
Sales Lost Momentum
According to the report, the inventory of homes for sale in the region reached 6,340 units in 2023, nearly double the 3,243 units recorded in 2019.
Annual sales fell from 3,487 units in 2023 to 1,711 in 2025, representing a decline of nearly 51% in just two years, according to the analysis.
Monthly absorption per development decreased from 1.4 homes in 2022 to 0.9 in 2025, a trend reflecting longer sales periods for new projects.
According to the study, these indicators show that supply continued to grow even as the market began to experience slower housing sales, resulting in an increase in available inventory.
Between 2021 and 2025, home sale prices increased by 39%, while construction costs rose by 47%. As a result, many developers reduced apartment sizes to maintain the price per square meter, according to the report.
The analysis also highlights differences in housing occupancy among the main tourist destinations. Cancún has an occupancy rate of 89%, Playa del Carmen 82%, and Tulum only 21%, a situation that, according to the report, increases the local market’s dependence on tourism.
The document explains that a larger permanent resident population helps cushion the effects of a tourism slowdown, while markets with lower permanent occupancy rely much more heavily on visitor flows to sustain housing occupancy and local consumption.
“The lesson applies to any expanding tourist destination: increasing density before proper planning does not accelerate development—it accelerates oversupply.”
The findings also complement what this publication reported last June about Tulum’s real estate market, noting that the destination had become a reference point for other vertical housing markets because of the importance of aligning real estate development with actual demand.
According to InfoHabitat, the market’s recovery will depend on strengthening legal certainty regarding land ownership, improving basic infrastructure, generating municipality-specific statistical information, maintaining greater coordination between authorities and the private sector, and ensuring that new construction permits correspond to effective housing demand.
Souce: eleconomista
